A city replaced its old street lamps with brighter LED lamps in half of its neighbourhoods. A year later, reported night-time thefts in those neighbourhoods had fallen by 30%, while in the other neighbourhoods they were unchanged. The city council concludes that brighter street lighting reduces theft.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the council's conclusion?
Solution
The conclusion credits the lamps for the drop. If a second change (night patrols) happened only in the same areas, the patrols could explain the fall, which weakens the causal claim.
A city-wide trend would affect both groups equally, so it does not explain the difference; electricity use and complaints are irrelevant; a small daytime fall does not separate the two explanations.
